October 27, 2014
By: John E. Fiorentino
"I don't know what you mean by 'glory,' " Alice said. Humpty Dumpty smiled contemptuously. "Of course you don't—till I tell you. I meant 'there's a nice knock-down argument for you!' " "But 'glory' doesn't mean 'a nice knock-down argument'," Alice objected. "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less." "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things." "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master—that's all."
Alice was too much puzzled to say anything, so after a minute Humpty Dumpty began again. "They've a temper, some of them—particularly verbs, they're the proudest—adjectives you can do anything with, but not verbs—however, I can manage the whole lot! Impenetrability! That's what I say!"
Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking-Glass (1872)
As the official search for MH370 grinds on in the Southern Indian Ocean, (SIO) some of those on the outside in our Independent Investigations have become increasingly protective and intransigent.
My own experience with several members of the loose association calling itself the Independent Group or (IG) for short, has been less than stellar. As reported in a prior article, I was banned from the Duncan Steel blog essentially for asking a question, making a statement that Duncan Steel claimed was “false” and not being allowed to respond to his accusation. More recently, Jeff Wise, another IG member, banned me from his blog. This ban being imposed ostensibly because I was “egging on” two other IG members namely Mike Exner and Don Thompson. Jeff Wise also informed me:
John,I deleted your post today because I know that if you egg Mike on he will likely take the time to respond, and I think that is a waste of his valuable time. You’ve also been egging on Don Thompson. These are highly learned and intelligent people who are making a real contribution. You, on the other hand, are just making noise and fuss. I gave Redacted one warning; consider this yours. If you continue to suck up oxygen without contributing anything useful to the conversation you will be summarily banned.Jeff=
My first thought when reading this was, “Who is Don Thompson?” But we'll deal with that later. My second thought was.......”What time is it anyway?” You see Wise's e-mail to me “warning” I might be banned was received Sunday, October 12, 2014 6:43 AM – while on the internet this was posted October 12, 2014 at 7:01 AM - “John Fiorentino has been permanently banned.” It was the old "Pearl Harbor Warning!"
Don Thompson? Beats me!.........I found two posts on Wise's blog which is what Wise must have been referring to? “Egging on” didn't see anything like that. In any event, I haven't discovered any asteroids lately (Duncan Steel), appeared on CNN (Jeff Wise) nor self described myself (on his twitter account) as Troubleshooter, problem buster, all round top man! (Don Thompson)........so, I'm sure to get the worst of all this.
In spite of Wise's concern about Exner's “waste of his valuable time,” that didn't seem to stop him from engaging me on Twitter. Accusing me of “misrepresenting” the IG's recommendation re: the MH370 search area, he didn't seem to even be aware of his own groups position as he engaged in what might best be described as “Humpty Dumpty science.”
The IG in its 9/Sept/14 report stated:
Thus, we believe MH370 impacted the water within seconds after the last signaling unit log record, and within 1 NM of the 7th arc. This finding suggests that the width of the impact arc could be reduced from -20/+30 NM to approximately ±10 NM.
In their 26/Sept/14 update the IG stated:
In addition, the final two BFO values are consistent with a near-vertical dive by the aircraft above the 7th arc and therefore a crash into the ocean close to that arc (rather than a glide beyond the arc)
The rate-of-descent we calculate from the final BFO value is approximately 15,700 feet per minute. This is an almost vertical dive at 287 km per hour (155 knots). The descent rate was very likely increasing rapidly (i.e. accelerating under gravity, only limited by the aircraft drag).
The occurrence of a near-vertical spiral dive has significant implications in reducing the width of the target search area, as mentioned previously. We argue that the aircraft could not have flown far beyond the 7th arc before crashing into the ocean, if it went beyond that arc at all: the BFO data at that time (00:19:29 and 00:19:37) indicate that MH370 was in a tight spiral dive (radius below 1 NM) over the 7th arc and therefore the crash may actually have been just inside that arc.
Unfortunately for all of these ruminations by the IG, the factual basis for their assertions remains rather nebulous. The idea advanced by the IG that the 9M-MRO aircraft was in a “spiral dive” before impact has essentially no support at all.
In the ATSB report, using *real* simulators, and in conjunction with Boeing, there is no mention of any "spiral dive" "near vertical descent" nor any other descriptor even vaguely approaching the IG's ideas.
The only *evidence* (so far) of any spiral dive resides in the final BFO value which we are told by Inmarsat (A) to disregard and in the IG's own *need* (based on their pronouncements) to have one.
"And wishing can't make it so"
(Anthony Hopkins - Hearts in Atlantis)
Exner claims the IG and ATSB agree
In a tweet of 22/October/14 after stating I “misrepresented” the IG's recommendation,
Exner said: “We recommended ~30NM, reduced from 100NM. ATSB & IG agree on width.“ My own tweet in response said:
@Airlandseaman I'm afraid it's Exner who has "misrepresented" ATSB advised me personally of search width -20NM and +30NM same as June report
To which Exner asked: That's not 100NM, is it? And I responded thusly:” No, it's not 100nm and was never represented to be. It's also NOT ~30NM as you stated. That's the point Mike.“
There were several more fruitless exchanges, but Exner just couldn't put it all back together.
Of all the generalizations of physics, the second law of thermodynamics is certainly the most deeply seated in the common sense of men, and one of the most humorous of children’s verses refers to the man whose wondrous wisdom enabled him to circumvent it by direct repair:
There was a man in our town,
And he was wondrous wise;
He jumped into a bramble bush
And scratched out both his eyes.
And when he found his eyes were out,
With all his might and main,
He jumped into another bush
And scratched them in again.(B)
More Humpty's and Dumpty's
It's not my intent to single out Mike Exner from the “gang of three.” Space scientist Duncan Steel, (apparently in the spirit of Halloween) says on his blog:
“….the ATSB and the other components of the official investigation team are reading these posts and comments, and reacting to them (see the current search region being criss-crossed by the Fugro Equator), although they will not say that publicly.”
All sort of spooky, isn't it?
And Jeffrey James Wise on his blog claims:
“IG members were among the most vocal critics of the ATSB’s contention that the acoustic pings probably came from black-box pingers.”
I found this rather amusing as I knew who “the most vocal” critic was, and that was myself. So, I asked Wise:
Jeff, would you be so kind as to post some of the IG members comments on this topic (with dates provided) or provide the proper URL’s where we can all read about this?
Mr. Wise before dealing the final death blow warned me:
“Behave yourself, Mr. Fiorentino”.
A Word About the ATSB
Much criticism has been leveled at Australia's Transport Safety Bureau. Some justified, but much of it not. I will say even though I've had my own issues with the ATSB, I have for the most part found them to be polite and accommodating. It is highly unlikely our own NTSB would be as helpful. The NTSB has only limited lines of communication to independent investigators and the general public. They are invariably tight lipped during the course of any open investigation.
Brief Update On Our Own Investigation
As reported in an earlier Press Release, in my own recommendations to the ATSB, sent prior to the IG's I suggested a widening of the search zone and indicated my end point as slightly South of the ATSB's. I have since abandoned my stated end point, in favor of a new approach (rather than purely mathematical). Utilizing a combination of flight planning by waypoint inputs and a process called vector addition (C,D,E,F) I have arrived at what I think is a unique solution for the current location of MH370. All of this processing assumes my belief that the aircraft was heading toward Perth, Australia.
(Because of the rather sensitive nature of some of this information, I am still deciding the proper avenue for release)
Notes and References
A - The Search for MH370 Chris Ashton, Alan Shuster Bruce, Gary Colledge and Mark Dickinson (Inmarsat)
B - The Second Law of Thermodynamics: Its Basis In Intuition and Common Sense. Professor W. S. Franklin, Lehigh University. The Popular Science Monthly, ppgs., 240-241. March, 1910
C - Arfken, G. Mathematical Methods for Physicists, 3rd ed. Orlando, FL: Academic Press, pp. 1-2, 1985.
D - Jeffreys, H. and Jeffreys, B. S. Methods of Mathematical Physics, 3rd ed. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, p. 58, 1988.
E - Weisstein, Eric W. "Parallelogram Law." From MathWorld--A Wolfram Web Resource. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ParallelogramLaw.html
F - Serial Isogons of 90 Degrees Lee Sallows, Martin Gardner, Richard K. Guy and Donald Knuth Mathematics Magazine Vol. 64, No. 5 (Dec., 1991), pp. 315-324
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John E. Fiorentino
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